01/30/2021 1:30pm
A low pressure system passing to the south will produce accumulating snow across the region beginning this afternoon. Precipitation will begin in southwestern Wisconsin within the next several hours and will gradually spread North and East throughout the afternoon. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur this evening through the overnight hours. Precipitation rates of up to 1 inch of snow per hour are possible during this time. Snow will continue through Sunday morning before tapering off from West to East. Areas along the lake may see light to moderate snow continue through Sunday evening due to lake enhancement. The southwestern corner of the state may see precipitation start as freezing rain or a mix of snow and freezing rain before quickly transitioning over to all snow. Travel will be difficult tonight through Sunday as roads will become snow covered and slick.
We are expecting much of the Southern Wisconsin region to receive between 3 and 6 inches of snow accumulation from this event with higher amounts occurring along the Wisconsin-Illinois border and lower amounts further North. Areas along Lake Michigan, including Milwaukee, will see higher amounts due to lake enhancement of snowfall. 4-8 inches of snow are expected for these areas, and locally higher amounts approaching 10 inches are possible particularly for areas along the lake and south of Milwaukee such as Kenosha and Racine. Additionally, we have included Dane County and adjacent points to the south in the area expected to receive 4-8 inches of snow. This is due to several models indicating a combination of heavier banding and lingering backend snow could produce localized snow totals over 6 inches within this area. Models have also consistently shown an area of lighter accumulations between Madison and Milwaukee. This local minima is likely due to subsidence, or sinking air, that could occur in this area as a result of being in between heavier bands of snow occurring to the East along the lake and to the West over the Madison area.
Looking ahead, dry and cold but seasonal conditions should return in the wake of this storm and persist through much of the week. The next period we are watching for possible winter weather is late this week into next weekend. We will have updates on this site as well as our twitter page both for this storm and any future threats as they become necessary. Until then enjoy the snow and stay safe.
Madison Weather Blog 